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I think we are about there, if there were still lots out there then the cost of a watch from 5 years ago would be around the same as it is now (allowing for inflation). Given that the price has gone up several times over we can only assume that supply cannot keep up with demand so we must be at or past peak supply, especially if the trend continues. I see even places like Australia, Ukraine and even South America are selling watches on eBay, picking over their stocks, mixed in with fakes and Frankenwatches etc. -
By Neverenoughwatches · Posted
I understand the demand bit, the generation below me 30ish are too technology engrossed to own a mechanical watch and they just dont like old stuff. I also consider myself at the getting on age of 57 to be a rare find of someone that likes old stuff, i did buy an almost 100 year old book yesterday titled " The New Modern Home " printed 1929. Cost me a quid. What i was trying to work out is if we have reached a volume peak of watches being discovered hidden in the back of drawers. Those watches that were hung onto until they entered the hands of the non sentimental generation. -
Even for myself who only started getting into watch repair/servicing during COVID I have seen a huge jump in watch prices - we have a 404 channel on this forum. When I started you could relatively easily find a watch on eBay to restore and put onto the channel, however this is now almost impossible and the only feasible solution is to buy a job lot with an average price <4.04. Even watches sold for parts/spares are 3 or four times the price of only a few years ago. Why - Either Demand must have increased in order to push up the price, or supply is reduced. I think it is a little of both, I think that most watches in the UK/US may have been picked over, which agrees with most of what @Neverenoughwatches says so supply of all kinds of vintage watches, including tat is dwindling. As a double whammy I think that more people are wanting watches, either to work on, or as a way to differentiate themselves from the Apple Watch and FitBit crowd. The upshot is that half decent watches that require restoration are now $500 instead of $100 and cheaper watches (Seiko 5 etc) are now $50 instead of $10, and even Mumbai Specials and garbage are now pushing $50 each. When - how long will this last, I think that most of the people who are returning to mechanical watches are those that have previously experienced life without them and want to return to something with a bit of personality that doesn't buzz every 10 seconds on your wrist and tell you how many steps you have done today. i.e. the 30-40+ generation. My son who is 17 has several mechanical watches but only wears one on a special occasion and is obviously only aware of them at all in part due to my hobby. I asked him the other day how many of his friends wear a watch and he told me that some use a smart watch but most just use their phones. So as I see it, demand will start to fall once the sub-thirty crowd start becoming the majority and/or the older amongst us stop buying watches and switch our attention to mobility scooters and trying to remember our bank password. Price - I think this is here to stay, even if demand does start to drop as the older generation becomes to decrepit and stops buying and the younger generation isn't interested in buying, supply will become progressively less as time goes on as more vintage watches become lost or broken beyond repair. I think the prices will plateau at some point as an equilibrium is reached as reduced demand is balanced with reduced supply, i.e. less and less people buying less and less watches. Sorry for the long ramble!
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By watchweasol · Posted
Hi. Use a PVA based glue, gorilla glue it dries transparent then do as advised by Old Hippy, smoothe down using very fine 0000 wire wool and either French polish or beeswax for a finish. -
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