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Reshaping bunched up hairsprings with etachron adjustments....


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 I almost certainly destroyed a non running bunched up hairspring on a 7s26b (cleaned and demagnetized to eliminate other faults.) that just needed to be adjusted this way by messing with the etachrons while not having a real understanding of the theory of what I was doing because what to do is explained pretty thoroughly in the tech sheet and in various tutorials but what exactly it accomplishes, the theory is not explained at all much. Since every parts 7s26b balance assembly i can find seems to have the hairspring unbent but bunched up It appears i will have to do this again so help not cocking it up would be great. I think i just need a bit of knowledge.

 Here's the service sheet illustration for it.
etachron.thumb.jpg.9bf16f1940f91b5b64818601e0408d3a.jpg
Help me understand this in simple noob terms.

If the stud needs to be rotated to reshape a hairspring that is collapsed on one side, the regulator pin basically is a "gate" for the hairspring to pass through that has to be opened before doing this  otherwise you will kink the spring as it has no way to move through that gate. So correct procedure/order to do this is to.
1. Adjust the regulator pin so there's maximum clearance and the hairspring can freely move through it while adjusting the stud pin.
2. Adjust the stud pin which adjusts the shape of the hairspring (This worked great at first it seemed.) and brings it "into beat", i'm unclear how you determine it's properly in beat with this.
3. Adjust the regulator pin to have "adequate clearance" which is determined by what? and "adjust the clearance to control the swing angle of the hairspring.". What does proper swing angle look like? What does proper swing angle mean exactly? Nobody really seems to discuss these. 

Below is a picture of the factory setting of the two etachrons and the hairspring from a different watch was keeping good time till the pallet fork broke but the regulator arm appears to be cranked quite hard, more than "minimum clearance" in the illustration yet this was how it was set from the factory. Visually what about this photo indicates this is all correct if anything?
IMG_20220826_215612.thumb.jpg.c29b875ab7f11e292d0ffd85b946976e.jpg
 

Edited by Birbdad
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You know, I was recently informed that some hairsprings were suspect on the 7S26 B version specifically, these were quickly changed to the C version for this very reason.

Case in point, I got an SKX in a day or so ago. It was purchased in 2009 but never ran right so it ended up in a drawer. When I got it, it was running but way too fast. The TG couldn’t even get a proper reading before resetting.

I opened it up and wouldn’t you know it, a bunched up HS exactly as you got:

6C26C846-B6B0-4DDD-A4DE-CC2B518D3A4E.thumb.jpeg.37e9500d3333a38bd4a4f5fc95ff02b5.jpeg
 

I was the first to open the watch and based on the confirmed history, it left the factory like this. It turns out that the first kink of the HS was slightly too sharp - after gently smoothing it out very, very slightly, this was the result and I’m happy to report the watch is running perfectly now for the first time in 13 years.

5D5A48B3-0E1E-4A1C-A7C4-DCDD20743897.thumb.jpeg.60fe3fb830719fe4c492b3712f9b3ffe.jpeg
 

Now I’m not saying that this is relevant to any and all HS faults out there, but when it comes to the B versions of the 7Sxx series, it’s apparently a known issue


 

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1 hour ago, gbyleveldt said:

You know, I was recently informed that some hairsprings were suspect on the 7S26 B version specifically, these were quickly changed to the C version for this very reason.

Case in point, I got an SKX in a day or so ago. It was purchased in 2009 but never ran right so it ended up in a drawer. When I got it, it was running but way too fast. The TG couldn’t even get a proper reading before resetting.

I opened it up and wouldn’t you know it, a bunched up HS exactly as you got:

6C26C846-B6B0-4DDD-A4DE-CC2B518D3A4E.thumb.jpeg.37e9500d3333a38bd4a4f5fc95ff02b5.jpeg
 

I was the first to open the watch and based on the confirmed history, it left the factory like this. It turns out that the first kink of the HS was slightly too sharp - after gently smoothing it out very, very slightly, this was the result and I’m happy to report the watch is running perfectly now for the first time in 13 years.

5D5A48B3-0E1E-4A1C-A7C4-DCDD20743897.thumb.jpeg.60fe3fb830719fe4c492b3712f9b3ffe.jpeg
 

Now I’m not saying that this is relevant to any and all HS faults out there, but when it comes to the B versions of the 7Sxx series, it’s apparently a known issue


 

Yeah i'm not even kidding, i looked through about 25 different parts watches with this movement and ALL of the ones with "freely rotating balance" appear to have the hairspring bunched up in exactly this fashion...all of them.

So i guess you got out the tweezers and the watchmakers skills and adjusted that kink by hand? That is almost certainly beyond my pay grade but the 7s26b and C take the same balance w/stud part, it's just the balance cock that's not compatible.. 

ALso wouldn't you know  it, only a few hours after i posted this I found this AMAZING video that REALLY actually explains what the etachron system does and how to use it. This REALLY made the theory behind it make sense. I am still a bit unclear then what the stud adjustment exactly does. I get the regulator acting as a gate to stabilize the hairspring but under what circumstances would you want to adjust the stud pin?
 

So perhaps it's not the etachron system i need to mess with at all to fix the bunched hairspring but to just either try my skill at altering the kink or to transplant another healthy hairspring onto the balance cock which again looks like it may be beyond my pay grade.

I will say before the hairspring self destructed, adjusting the stud DID spring that hairspring into exactly the shape I would have expected it to be in but for all i know it was just messing it up in the section where the regulator pin was

I guess i would just like peoples advice on how i should proceed. A replacement movement that may or may not have a healthy 7s26b balance assembly should be coming from the netherlands within a week or two.

Edited by Birbdad
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Hmm, how you mean the B and C balance assemblies aren’t compatible? They certainly are - the only difference between them is the material used for the actual hairspring itself (the B version being slightly softer and floppier than the C version).

In fact, as a fun little experiment, I’ve used the complete balance assembly from a 7009 (80’s vintage movement) on a 4R36 and it works just fine. Yes the studs and shock system is different but the cock geometry and balance staff is the same. Obviously I don’t recommend this as a permanent workaround, but it does work none the less.

Anyway, yes you need to adjust the HS like I’ve done and it does come with risk. But you only learn by practice unfortunately. In my case it was a pretty simple fix, but I have the benefit of a powerful microscope and very thin tweezers. HS work is a lot harder with the wrong equipment 

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1 minute ago, gbyleveldt said:

Hmm, how you mean the B and C balance assemblies aren’t compatible? They certainly are - the only difference between them is the material used for the actual hairspring itself (the B version being slightly softer and floppier than the C version).

In fact, as a fun little experiment, I’ve used the complete balance assembly from a 7009 (80’s vintage movement) on a 4R36 and it works just fine. Yes the studs and shock system is different but the cock geometry and balance staff is the same. Obviously I don’t recommend this as a permanent workaround, but it does work none the less.

Anyway, yes you need to adjust the HS like I’ve done and it does come with risk. But you only learn by practice unfortunately. In my case it was a pretty simple fix, but I have the benefit of a powerful microscope and very thin tweezers. HS work is a lot harder with the wrong equipment 

So you can use the balance cock/entire balance assembly from a C movement in a B movement? Everywhere else i could find said they were incompatible due to some change to the bridge which required a differently shaped balance cock. A member here compiled this parts list that I assumed indicated they were different parts because they were incompatible, also people on other forums said they were incompatible.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRN2UULQKTfKmhRStZhDdIOIQrqd6sPB-g6x2SKyQQjOvTBjG_7TQXQhAT4f1WqAX5QAPkIimi-3jqd/pubhtml
 

So you're telling me that I can just buy a dirt cheap NH35 movement and put the balance assembly from that into this 7s26b.....that solves so many damn problems if true and makes me very happy.

Also it doesn't affect compatibility but another change is the design of the regulator pin. Apparently the C one was extended in length so the hairspring was less likely to bounce out of it when subjected to shock.

This is a B regulator pin (Warning: SHOCKING Watch gore courtesy of me. Mature audiences only.)
1831131474_IMG_20220825_2039072.jpg.2368462e214a4f5d2514d83bc49bf619.jpg
 This is a C
IMG_20220826_215612.thumb.jpg.3950434f62fbbea4c642612f809384b7.jpg

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31 minutes ago, gbyleveldt said:

Absolutely yes. The actual cock geometries are exactly the same. I literally tested this for myself because of the similarities between all the 7xxx series movements over the years

Haha you got no idea how happy this makes me.

I tell you it is exhausting trying to sort through what's real and what's not, who on reddit knows what they're talking about and who doesn't who on watchuseek knows and who doesn't. 

So  the etachron adjustment advice would not ever have been a remedy for that hairspring and it was just toast unless i could shape it by hand which i almost certainly probably cant...Could be worse i suppose?

I guess to make the thread not a total waste, that video did beautifuly explain the purpose of the regulator pin for this system but does the stud have any function other than to just make sure the hairspring goes directly through the center of the regulator pin when you're adjusting it?
 

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5 hours ago, gbyleveldt said:

You know, I was recently informed that some hairsprings were suspect on the 7S26 B version specifically, these were quickly changed to the C version for this very reason.

Case in point, I got an SKX in a day or so ago. It was purchased in 2009 but never ran right so it ended up in a drawer. When I got it, it was running but way too fast. The TG couldn’t even get a proper reading before resetting.

I opened it up and wouldn’t you know it, a bunched up HS exactly as you got:

6C26C846-B6B0-4DDD-A4DE-CC2B518D3A4E.thumb.jpeg.37e9500d3333a38bd4a4f5fc95ff02b5.jpeg
 

I was the first to open the watch and based on the confirmed history, it left the factory like this. It turns out that the first kink of the HS was slightly too sharp - after gently smoothing it out very, very slightly, this was the result and I’m happy to report the watch is running perfectly now for the first time in 13 years.

5D5A48B3-0E1E-4A1C-A7C4-DCDD20743897.thumb.jpeg.60fe3fb830719fe4c492b3712f9b3ffe.jpeg
 

Now I’m not saying that this is relevant to any and all HS faults out there, but when it comes to the B versions of the 7Sxx series, it’s apparently a known issue


 

It might be quite common Gert as the Huntana h/s i was fiddling a while ago was very similar. It did have some vertical bend issues, but a little tweak on the end curve bend centralised the coils nicely.  It was the VD one lol. The photo posts showed it very bunched up.  Great video on the Titus btw matey 👍 

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1 hour ago, Birbdad said:

Haha you got no idea how happy this makes me.

I tell you it is exhausting trying to sort through what's real and what's not, who on reddit knows what they're talking about and who doesn't who on watchuseek knows and who doesn't. 

So  the etachron adjustment advice would not ever have been a remedy for that hairspring and it was just toast unless i could shape it by hand which i almost certainly probably cant...Could be worse i suppose?

I guess to make the thread not a total waste, that video did beautifuly explain the purpose of the regulator pin for this system but does the stud have any function other than to just make sure the hairspring goes directly through the center of the regulator pin when you're adjusting it?
 

Heh, the only way to really know is to test things for yourself. Everyone (including me) can be an internet expert - you have no way to know who to trust and who not until you go and empirically test these things for yourself. Now it's a problem for someone that's new to the hobby to know who to trust, so I understand the frustration you're going through. It's not like you have 50 movements laying around (yet) where you can swap parts till it magically comes right. It's for this very reason why most watchmakers tell newbies not to start with a broken movement. But the newbies never listen (and I'll include myself here because I also ignored that advice).

So yes, if you twisted the regulator pin all the way (or the wrong way) you'll distort the spring and it could lead to a cockeyed hairspring like you've seen. So that advice you were given wasn't wrong per se, it just wasn't the issue in your case. A better answer might have been to follow the Seiko spec sheet and to turn the regulator pin in the fully open position (like you would if you were to replace the hairspring) and then see if the hairspring was still out of centre or not. If the HS came right, you know the regulator pin wasn't set correctly. If the HS didn't come right, you would know that the HS itself isn't right. Again, as I've said before, you don't know what you don't know. I can't tell you how many hours I've wasted on exactly this very issue.

With reference to the video you posted above, let's look at page 17 of the 4R3x data sheet I've attached here, just to make sure we're at the same page. Correctly twisting the regulator pin "pinches" the HS just enough to prevent it vibrating in different dial positions. That's it. Too much pinching is obviously not what you want as that'll distort the terminal curve of the HS. Moving the regulator arm (which the regulator pin is attached to) times the movement. Moving the stud support (where the end of the HS is attached to) sets the beat error of the movement. Those are the 3 adjustments you can make on a balance and should only be done once the HS is properly centered in position. 

Now when you posted your initial pic all those weeks ago with the Hs out of whack, many of us commented on that being the issue. As many people on other sites might have given suggestions on how to fix the issue, you must remember your case was a very weird one and probably not something anyone might have thought of as it's so uncommon. It's only fluke that I had that very same issue a few days ago and was made aware of this issue on the 7Sxx B hairsprings. That certainly doesn't nullify any of the other advice you were given, as now you've gained a tremendous amount of insight into this specific aspect of the hobby.

No matter who you are, you learn something every time you face a new challenge - just the other day I had to figure out how to make a new spring using spring steel because the spring in the calendar works of a vintage movement was incorrect (previous guy must have lost it and tried to make a plan with the incorrect spring). It took me a while to realize the spring was the problem, then it took more time to figure out how I was going to fix it. Frustrating? Yes. Educational? For damn sure.

So don't beat yourself up about this too much. You're keen and determined and that's going to make you great at this hobby.

9022_4r35b_4r36a.pdf

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Somebody elsewhere who's been good about sharing his knowledge gave me these nice graphics. Figured i'd post them here for Posterity.

Much clearer illustration than grainy photos. 
1. Open up the regulator arm.
2. Adjust the stud till the hairspring is passing through the center of the regulator arm pin.
3. Adjust the regulator pin counter clockwise till rate deviations are smaller from position to position.

So how does a watchmaker go about checking these fractional micro adjustments of the stud to be sure it's directly in center of the regulator pin gap? Do they just make a tiny adjustment, remove the balance assembly, flip it over to check and rinse and repeat till it's perfect? that sounds annoying and time consuming.

bzliev1x39k91.thumb.png.065bd5971e4c781ba6e870cefb820d68.png

0aeyag7959k91.thumb.png.07c68569c6c66d496fe3191eda89c27d.png

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1 hour ago, Neverenoughwatches said:

It might be quite common Gert as the Huntana h/s i was fiddling a while ago was very similar. It did have some vertical bend issues, but a little tweak on the end curve bend centralised the coils nicely.  It was the VD one lol. The photo posts showed it very bunched up.  Great video on the Titus btw matey 👍 

You don't generally expect something that left the factory to be faulty in such a way - it's usually someone before you that screwed up haha. And Thanks my man. That was a real cool movement to play with.

2 minutes ago, Birbdad said:

So how does a watchmaker go about checking these fractional micro adjustments of the stud to be sure it's directly in center of the regulator pin gap? Do they just make a tiny adjustment, remove the balance assembly, flip it over to check and rinse and repeat till it's perfect? that sounds annoying and time consuming.
 

You use a Timegrapher, as the video you posted suggested. Before these were common, your life sucked.

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14 minutes ago, gbyleveldt said:

Frustrating? Yes. Educational? For damn sure.

So don't beat yourself up about this too much. You're keen and determined and that's going to make you great at this hobby.

9022_4r35b_4r36a.pdf 5.63 MB · 0 downloads

I'm actually exponentially less frustrated now that i know that hairspring had kicked the bucket the way the one you had and so many other 7s26b's does. This watch is well over 9 years old and whatever happened to the spring happened on it's own long before i opened it up (I just finished the job XD).

But yeah we're totally on the same page with the difference between changing the rate, changing the beat error and adjusting the etachrons for a better rate consistency between positions, those are 3 different things though adjusting the regulator pin does effect rate.. 

I don't think it was even here but elsewhere some people had some pretty wild ideas of what was the purpose of the etachrons are and now that i know what it actually does that is such a fascinating and interesting mechanism! I'm going to cobble together a junk movement with all my spare parts and really experiment with it in the future.

ANy cheaper options for the etachron twisting tool? 40 bucks is absurd. It seems like the sort of thing there would be an easy diy to make one yourself somewhere.

 

Edited by Birbdad
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7 minutes ago, Birbdad said:

ANy cheaper options for the etachron twisting tool? 40 bucks is absurd. It seems like the sort of thing there would be an easy diy to make one yourself somewhere.

I use a *gasp* stiff tweezer. Not the ideal, but in most of the stuff I do I seldom need to touch the regulator pin unless I've taken off the HS for whatever reason. It helps that I work under a stereo microscope, I'm not sure I'd be comfortable using a tweezer with a loupe as you don't have great depth of field

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6 hours ago, Birbdad said:

I guess i would just like peoples advice on how i should proceed. A replacement movement that may or may not have a healthy 7s26b balance assembly should be coming from the netherlands within a week or two.

Technically, the best way to go about doing this sort of work (hairspring manipulation) requires you to remove the hairspring (and collet) from the balance wheel. Once the hairspring is off the balance wheel, you have a much easier time massaging the hairspring into the correct shape.

Some experts are able to do hairspring work on the balance wheel, but that requires much more skill. Since you’ve managed to get a replacement balance wheel anyway, it might be worth your time to explore how well you can massage the hairspring back into shape.

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17 minutes ago, ifibrin said:

Technically, the best way to go about doing this sort of work (hairspring manipulation) requires you to remove the hairspring (and collet) from the balance wheel. Once the hairspring is off the balance wheel, you have a much easier time massaging the hairspring into the correct shape.

Some experts are able to do hairspring work on the balance wheel, but that requires much more skill. Since you’ve managed to get a replacement balance wheel anyway, it might be worth your time to explore how well you can massage the hairspring back into shape.

Yeah i'm hanging onto this hairspring as it only appears to be slightly twisted in one place and just that one kink GBYLEVEDT fixed. My #5 and #3 tweezers should be here soon. I'll probably trash it but it'll be good practice.

I haven't actually seen anybody remove a 7s26 hairspring from a balance wheel, i assume it's done the same way as other movements just with some hand levers and very carefully?

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2 minutes ago, Birbdad said:


I haven't actually seen anybody remove a 7s26 hairspring from a balance wheel, i assume it's done the same way as other movements just with some hand levers and very carefully?

Yes, you can use hand levers to remove the hairspring at the collet, but you need to make sure your hand levers are shaped correctly. You also need to be very careful when removing the collet, as it is very easy to distort the hairspring when removing the collet. Removing the hairspring collet with hand levers is also unlike removing hands; removing a hairspring collet is more of a twisting action compared to a prying action.

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19 minutes ago, ifibrin said:

Yes, you can use hand levers to remove the hairspring at the collet, but you need to make sure your hand levers are shaped correctly. You also need to be very careful when removing the collet, as it is very easy to distort the hairspring when removing the collet. Removing the hairspring collet with hand levers is also unlike removing hands; removing a hairspring collet is more of a twisting action compared to a prying action.

yeah i watched mark do it in one of his videos. Is the correct shape just fairly sharp and polished?

I have the bergeon 30027's and honestly looking at them right now they look pretty steep for getting under a hairspring without basically pushing the edges of it upward but i really don't have anything to lose when i get around to messing with it.

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Ok yeah i dont got that haha. I'll put it on my "To buy at some point" tool list next to the etachron stud rotator. Thanks bud!

Also you know what's REALLY garbage? Bergeon could just...sell a bit for their drivers to turn any bergeon driver into an etachron rotation driver but of course they only sell a dedicated driver for 40 bucks.

if anybody has a cnc that would be a real easy and neat thing to make.

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2 hours ago, ifibrin said:

Technically, the best way to go about doing this sort of work (hairspring manipulation) requires you to remove the hairspring (and collet) from the balance wheel. Once the hairspring is off the balance wheel, you have a much easier time massaging the hairspring into the correct shape.

Some experts are able to do hairspring work on the balance wheel, but that requires much more skill. Since you’ve managed to get a replacement balance wheel anyway, it might be worth your time to explore how well you can massage the hairspring back into shape.

Quite true ifibrin.   Small corrections can be done quite easily  with the spring mounted but anything above that is done more easily with it naked. 

1 hour ago, Birbdad said:

Yeah i'm hanging onto this hairspring as it only appears to be slightly twisted in one place and just that one kink GBYLEVEDT fixed. My #5 and #3 tweezers should be here soon. I'll probably trash it but it'll be good practice.

I haven't actually seen anybody remove a 7s26 hairspring from a balance wheel, i assume it's done the same way as other movements just with some hand levers and very carefully?

I use 2 sharpened oilers, into a slight curved shape to help them slide under the collet. Once both inserted then twist them opposed and the collet lifts quite easily. To replace tweezers can be used carefully but a safer option is a fine hollow tube. I aquired a couple of sets of these, I'm still not sure what they are for but they work really well for replacing the collet. Will post a couple of photos later .

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8 hours ago, Birbdad said:

don't think it was even here but elsewhere some people had some pretty wild ideas of what was the purpose of the etachrons are and now that i know what it actually does

Hmm er NO it wasn’t here Colin thats because we know what we're talking about and other forums dont obviously.  Because this is the best watch repair forum in the world OBVIOUSLY  🙄 (Shakes head in dismay). Bit disappointed here Colin .

32 minutes ago, Neverenoughwatches said:

Hmm er NO it wasn’t here Colin thats because we know what we're talking about and other forums dont obviously.  Because this is the best watch repair forum in the world OBVIOUSLY  🙄 (Shakes head in dismay). Bit disappointed here Colin .

I know unbelievable Gert isn't it 🤨. If a big ugly thing comes pacing up your driveway looking like its on a mission Col, you need to start running mate.   Because thats my missus coming to sort you out. 🙄

Edited by Neverenoughwatches
Had to go have a sit down and calm down moment.
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15 hours ago, Neverenoughwatches said:

Hmm er NO it wasn’t here Colin thats because we know what we're talking about and other forums dont obviously.  Because this is the best watch repair forum in the world OBVIOUSLY  🙄 (Shakes head in dismay). Bit disappointed here Colin .

I know unbelievable Gert isn't it 🤨. If a big ugly thing comes pacing up your driveway looking like its on a mission Col, you need to start running mate.   Because thats my missus coming to sort you out. 🙄

That's not what I said. I've just been sent down some...strange and very fictional rabbit holes from some people on reddit and watchuseek, not so much here.

Also my bird-son and I could take your missus. Tell her to bring her A game.

a_cockatoo_with_arms_by_darksack100_d9lxfbe-fullview.thumb.jpg.b38aa34547afa001816a6a8e61cb38d6.jpg

14 hours ago, Sirius said:

And for those who want to make the Etachron-Tools themself,

there is the Info already on WRT, thanks to Jon.

Yes that's right haha. I already knew this and just completely forgot. Sadly that's a lot of tools I don't got. 
Cheap consumer metal 3d printing can't get here fast enough.

Jon is fantastically helpful!

 

Edited by Birbdad
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4 hours ago, Birbdad said:

That's not what I said. I've just been sent down some...strange and very fictional rabbit holes from some people on reddit and watchuseek, not so much here.

Also my bird-son and I could take your missus. Tell her to bring her A game.

a_cockatoo_with_arms_by_darksack100_d9lxfbe-fullview.thumb.jpg.b38aa34547afa001816a6a8e61cb38d6.jpg

Yes that's right haha. I already knew this and just completely forgot. Sadly that's a lot of tools I don't got. 
Cheap consumer metal 3d printing can't get here fast enough.

Jon is fantastically helpful!

 

You've not seen my missus lol.

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On 8/27/2022 at 10:18 AM, Birbdad said:

Bergeon could just...sell a bit for their drivers to turn any bergeon driver into an etachron rotation driver but of course they only sell a dedicated driver for 40 bucks.

I think the smaller diameter of a watch makers screwdriver, even one of the larger ones, would not give you the same torque and control that the larger diameter of the correct tool provides.  Don't get me wrong, I'm all for not spending the 40 bucks but look at the design (most of the time things are the way they are for a reason) and try to duplicate that.  If their decisions don't reflect your needs, you (of course) have the freedom to make your own choices.

On 8/27/2022 at 9:21 AM, Birbdad said:

I'll probably trash it but it'll be good practice.

Yeah, I know what you mean, I'm getting really good at trashing hairsprings. 😭

Shane 

Thanks @JohnR725our previous conversation really helped me visualize and follow this thread.

 

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    • I tried the Moebius 9415 from any sensible amount, down to microscopic a drop (or "super minimalistic"); the size of droplet which makes you really wonder why one would/should apply anything at all? But to no avail, consistently a lower amplitude compared to my Dr.Tillwich 1-3. Of course, as John mentioned above, the Dr.Tillwich 1-3, just like the Moebius 9010, likes to go somewhere else. Since short however, I'm the (proud?) owner of a bottle of Moebius Fixodrop. Can't say that I'm a proud owner of the 9415. So far, I haven't seen or discovered the "magic" of the 9415. Meanwhile, Moebius 🤣 has my money though.........
    • I used to be quite active on The Lotus Forum when I owned my Esprit. I was there for so long, Bibs asked me to be a moderator. I'm not sure how long I did that for, but I think I turned into the second longest serving moderator. When I 'handed back my keys', Bibs made me a Full Forum Member. Normally this is a paid membership. My reward I suppose for helping out for many years. Bibs (forum owner) is quite active on there and if I am not wrong, don't quote me in other words, I think he once said that the money from memberships didn't cover the running cost. He adds money himself to keep it going. Does Mark have any sort of subscription scheme on here? I'll admit that I never paid to be a member on TLF. I should have. I never did. I agree that it would be a good idea that there is some sort of contingency plan for this forum. I intend on becoming more active on here. Life has just been getting in the way recently. I enrolled on Mark's watch course and was keenly doing that, but even that has had to take a back seat for a while. I am looking forward to getting back into that and also starting to do work on the clocks that I have been amassing. To do that successfully, I see myself needing to lean on the other members here. If for whatever reason this forum was to close, I think a great many of us would struggle.
    • I think we are about there, if there were still lots out there then the cost of a watch from 5 years ago would be around the same as it is now (allowing for inflation). Given that the price has gone up several times over we can only assume that supply cannot keep up with demand so we must be at or past peak supply, especially if the trend continues. I see even places like Australia, Ukraine and even South America are selling watches on eBay, picking over their stocks, mixed in with fakes and Frankenwatches etc.
    • I understand the demand bit, the generation below me 30ish are too technology engrossed to own a mechanical watch and they just dont like old stuff. I also consider myself at the getting on age of 57 to be a rare find of someone that likes old stuff, i did buy an almost 100 year old book yesterday titled " The New Modern Home " printed 1929.  Cost me a quid. What i was trying to work out is if we have reached a volume peak of watches being discovered hidden in the back of drawers.  Those watches that were hung onto until they entered the hands of the non sentimental generation. 
    • Even for myself who only started getting into watch repair/servicing during COVID I have seen a huge jump in watch prices - we have a 404 channel on this forum. When I started you could relatively easily find a watch on eBay to restore and put onto the channel, however this is now almost impossible and the only feasible solution is to buy a job lot with an average price <4.04. Even watches sold for parts/spares are 3 or four times the price of only a few years ago. Why - Either Demand must have increased in order to push up the price, or supply is reduced. I think it is a little of both, I think that most watches in the UK/US may have been picked over, which agrees with most of what @Neverenoughwatches says so supply of all kinds of vintage watches, including tat is dwindling. As a double whammy I think that more people are wanting watches, either to work on, or as a way to differentiate themselves from the Apple Watch and FitBit crowd. The upshot is that half decent watches that require restoration are now $500 instead of $100 and cheaper watches (Seiko 5 etc) are now $50 instead of $10, and even Mumbai Specials and garbage are now pushing $50 each. When - how long will this last, I think that most of the people who are returning to mechanical watches are those that have previously experienced life without them and want to return to something with a bit of personality that doesn't buzz every 10 seconds on your wrist and tell you how many steps you have done today. i.e. the 30-40+ generation. My son who is 17 has several mechanical watches but only wears one on a special occasion and is obviously only aware of them at all in part due to my hobby. I asked him the other day how many of his friends wear a watch and he told me that some use a smart watch but most just use their phones. So as I see it, demand will start to fall once the sub-thirty crowd start becoming the majority and/or the older amongst us stop buying watches and switch our attention to mobility scooters and trying to remember our bank password. Price - I think this is here to stay, even if demand does start to drop as the older generation becomes to decrepit and stops buying and the younger generation isn't interested in buying, supply will become progressively less as time goes on as more vintage watches become lost or broken beyond repair. I think the prices will plateau at some point as an equilibrium is reached as reduced demand is balanced with reduced supply, i.e. less and less people buying less and less watches. Sorry for the long ramble!
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