The tail end of the curve...

[LittleWatchShop]

First of all, I love this forum.  Below are some thoughts I have been pondering today while I was cursing a Diafix jewel.

When you look at a Gaussian curve, the middle is the mean of the distribution and the tails are where you rarely find an element in the population of that value (whatever et may be, length, weight...).  I would like to draw an analogy to watchmaking and the task of a watchmaker to service a watch to achieve optimal results (the mean of the curve).  Then I want to ponder where on the curve any particular element of the process affects the end result.  Let me contrive some examples to make the point.

Suppose you use the ancient spinning L&R machines.  Where on the curve does the effect of spinning the watch for five minutes vs. four minutes?  Would this have a first-order effect, or would you find that it is way out on the tail of the curve...3 sigma or greater.  This is a qualitative thing I am pondering...and not rigorous analysis...just musing.

How about oil?  A hot topic lately.  Does the choice of oil have a first order effect, or does it lie on in the one sigma range?  I am painting with a broad brush here. 

There are many many other practices that could be pondered and their over effect on the goal of optimum service.

Gloves, or finger cots, or none at all
Cleaning method: spinning, ultrasonic, pegging...
Cleaning solution: formulation, brand, refresh period
Rinsing solution: formulation, brand, refresh period
Cleaning time: time, spinning speed,
Pivot polishing
Oil: type, life on bench, life on shelf, brand
Oil application: amount, which type where, method, pallet fork (oh my)
Hairspring centering
Hairspring planarity
Amplitude
.
.
.

I am an amateur and do not get paid for my work, so maybe I am an outlier (sliding down the tail end of the curve!!) But I ponder these things.

I come from a humble horological household.  My Dad adopted whatever practices he learned back in '47, and ran his business for about 40 years.  I like to think he was successful, yet I am pretty sure he did not spend any time trying to regress to the mean (so to speak).  He ran a retail business where watches came in broken and had to go out working.  He guaranteed his work for one year. He had to send three kids to college.

[spectre6000]

Most things fall on the spectrum of art => science. Brewing kombucha is pretty far on the left, and rocket surgery is pretty far on the right. My take is that watchmaking is fairly unique in that it's simultaneously on both ends of the spectrum. There are parts that are deep on the far right, and parts that are deep on the far left. Things that are on the right hand side of the spectrum, need to be done a particular way very specifically. Things on the left you can do however best suits you for purposes of simplicity, resources, marketing, or what have you. When I see a dozen different options for (pick a thing) with equal claims to success (i.e. cleaning method), it appears clear to me that the position of that element is on the art side. If there's only one way to do something (turning a balance staff), it's clearly on the science side. Most of the things you listed on are the art side of the spectrum. Some things are movement-specific science-side. It's a different take on the curve you invoked, but along the same line of thinking, and how my mind tends to work around these sorts of things.