Second hand watch market.

[Neverenoughwatches]

Hello good watch folk ,I  just fancied a light hearted discussion after my head was starting to spin over Epilame . Specifically I'm meaning the sale of vintage watches, say nothing past the 1980s market. The stuff we see on ebay and other similar sites and found at carboots, curio shops etc. And are  we thinking its reaching a peak volume ?  Younger generations clearing out passed parents and grandparents possessions.  The younger folk are not as sentimental as the old fogies ( I'm now nearly at an age that i used to think was old fogie age ). When might it have started ?  i often wish i discovered the hobby much much sooner when selling your grandfathers pocket watch at a boot sale for a few quid was just a way to offload some tat. And when might it slow down. Thoughts anyone ?

[RichardHarris123]

This is as complicated as epilame, too many unknowns. The life expectancy in the UK is circa 80, so most people from 1944 or earlier are dead.  Assume they had children at circa 20, they died in 2004. Their children started selling 1944 watches in 2004, so pre-1944 watches must be getting more rare.  

It doesn't work though because as you stated some were sold as tat, but since watch prices have increased people have decided to sell when they may not of done in the past. 

[Neverenoughwatches]

1 hour ago, RichardHarris123 said:

This is as complicated as epilame, too many unknowns. The life expectancy in the UK is circa 80, so most people from 1944 or earlier are dead.  Assume they had children at circa 20, they died in 2004. Their children started selling 1944 watches in 2004, so pre-1944 watches must be getting more rare.  

It doesn't work though because as you stated some were sold as tat, but since watch prices have increased people have decided to sell when they may not of done in the past. 

A lot of it has to do with a generations attitude.  Have we reached a generation of folk yet that have no sentimental values ie. Just an object to sell . I expect my kids will sell my collection , maybe keep one valued piece. Not being in the game very long, i have no idea when the sale of old watches boomed or if it has even reached its peak yet. If we go back 20 years what were ebay sales like then, expense wise and volume ?

[RichardHarris123]

I'm not sentimental, I see it this way.  I inherit something I  don't like, I could sell it, buy something I do like and remember the person with the new item.  For example, I  inherit a watch ( I haven't), I don't like it, I  buy a watch I do like, every time I look at the watch, I think of the person. 

[Waggy]

Even for myself who only started getting into watch repair/servicing during COVID I have seen a huge jump in watch prices - we have a 404 channel on this forum. When I started you could relatively easily find a watch on eBay to restore and put onto the channel, however this is now almost impossible and the only feasible solution is to buy a job lot with an average price <4.04. Even watches sold for parts/spares are 3 or four times the price of only a few years ago.

Why - Either Demand must have increased in order to push up the price, or supply is reduced. I think it is a little of both, I think that most watches in the UK/US may have been picked over, which agrees with most of what @Neverenoughwatches says so supply of all kinds of vintage watches, including tat is dwindling. As a double whammy I think that more people are wanting watches, either to work on, or as a way to differentiate themselves from the Apple Watch and FitBit crowd. The upshot is that half decent watches that require restoration are now $500 instead of $100 and cheaper watches (Seiko 5 etc) are now $50 instead of $10, and even Mumbai Specials and garbage are now pushing $50 each.

When - how long will this last, I think that most of the people who are returning to mechanical watches are those that have previously experienced life without them and want to return to something with a bit of personality that doesn't buzz every 10 seconds on your wrist and tell you how many steps you have done today. i.e. the 30-40+ generation. My son who is 17 has several mechanical watches but only wears one on a special occasion and is obviously only aware of them at all in part due to my hobby. I asked him the other day how many of his friends wear a watch and he told me that some use a smart watch but most just use their phones. So as I see it, demand will start to fall once the sub-thirty crowd start becoming the majority and/or the older amongst us stop buying watches and switch our attention to mobility scooters and trying to remember our bank password.

Price - I think this is here to stay, even if demand does start to drop as the older generation becomes to decrepit and stops buying and the younger generation isn't interested in buying, supply will become progressively less as time goes on as more vintage watches become lost or broken beyond repair. I think the prices will plateau at some point as an equilibrium is reached as reduced demand is balanced with reduced supply, i.e. less and less people buying less and less watches.

Sorry for the long ramble!

[Neverenoughwatches]

8 minutes ago, Waggy said:

Even for myself who only started getting into watch repair/servicing during COVID I have seen a huge jump in watch prices - we have a 404 channel on this forum. When I started you could relatively easily find a watch on eBay to restore and put onto the channel, however this is now almost impossible and the only feasible solution is to buy a job lot with an average price <4.04. Even watches sold for parts/spares are 3 or four times the price of only a few years ago.

Why - Either Demand must have increased in order to push up the price, or supply is reduced. I think it is a little of both, I think that most watches in the UK/US may have been picked over, which agrees with most of what @Neverenoughwatches says so supply of all kinds of vintage watches, including tat is dwindling. As a double whammy I think that more people are wanting watches, either to work on, or as a way to differentiate themselves from the Apple Watch and FitBit crowd. The upshot is that half decent watches that require restoration are now $500 instead of $100 and cheaper watches (Seiko 5 etc) are now $50 instead of $10, and even Mumbai Specials and garbage are now pushing $50 each.

When - how long will this last, I think that most of the people who are returning to mechanical watches are those that have previously experienced life without them and want to return to something with a bit of personality that doesn't buzz every 10 seconds on your wrist and tell you how many steps you have done today. i.e. the 30-40+ generation. My son who is 17 has several mechanical watches but only wears one on a special occasion and is obviously only aware of them at all in part due to my hobby. I asked him the other day how many of his friends wear a watch and he told me that some use a smart watch but most just use their phones. So as I see it, demand will start to fall once the sub-thirty crowd start becoming the majority and/or the older amongst us stop buying watches and switch our attention to mobility scooters and trying to remember our bank password.

Price - I think this is here to stay, even if demand does start to drop as the older generation becomes to decrepit and stops buying and the younger generation isn't interested in buying, supply will become progressively less as time goes on as more vintage watches become lost or broken beyond repair. I think the prices will plateau at some point as an equilibrium is reached as reduced demand is balanced with reduced supply, i.e. less and less people buying less and less watches.

Sorry for the long ramble!

I understand the demand bit, the generation below me 30ish are too technology engrossed to own a mechanical watch and they just dont like old stuff. I also consider myself at the getting on age of 57 to be a rare find of someone that likes old stuff, i did buy an almost 100 year old book yesterday titled " The New Modern Home " printed 1929.  Cost me a quid. What i was trying to work out is if we have reached a volume peak of watches being discovered hidden in the back of drawers.  Those watches that were hung onto until they entered the hands of the non sentimental generation. 

[Waggy]

4 minutes ago, Neverenoughwatches said:

What i was trying to work out is if we have reached a volume peak

I think we are about there, if there were still lots out there then the cost of a watch from 5 years ago would be around the same as it is now (allowing for inflation). Given that the price has gone up several times over we can only assume that supply cannot keep up with demand so we must be at or past peak supply, especially if the trend continues. I see even places like Australia, Ukraine and even South America are selling watches on eBay, picking over their stocks, mixed in with fakes and Frankenwatches etc.

[Chief]

Sorry to jump in here, but I didn't want to start a new thread when there's already one regarding the second hand watch market. Can anyone tell me what I should be looking at when buying watches from eBay? I see loads on there for quite cheap, but after reading this thread I'm guessing they're all garbage and not worth the time? I recently bought an old Elco watch for 99p, just to practice on. I'm also really fond of the look of Services watches and Smiths Empire watches. I keep seeing them listed for around 5 or 6 pounds. Are they not worth the time buying? I'm not looking to sell watches to make a profit. I just want to buy watches I like the look of and wear them, but I also don't want to buy things that are going to be impossible to find parts for, or that have already been abused by someone else and broken beyond repair. Any tips?

[Neverenoughwatches]

3 hours ago, Chief said:

Sorry to jump in here, but I didn't want to start a new thread when there's already one regarding the second hand watch market. Can anyone tell me what I should be looking at when buying watches from eBay? I see loads on there for quite cheap, but after reading this thread I'm guessing they're all garbage and not worth the time? I recently bought an old Elco watch for 99p, just to practice on. I'm also really fond of the look of Services watches and Smiths Empire watches. I keep seeing them listed for around 5 or 6 pounds. Are they not worth the time buying? I'm not looking to sell watches to make a profit. I just want to buy watches I like the look of and wear them, but I also don't want to buy things that are going to be impossible to find parts for, or that have already been abused by someone else and broken beyond repair. Any tips?

Depends where you are with repairing, watches like you have just mentioned  the Smiths, Ingersolls, Services are often pin pallet watches with low jewel counts, not impossible to fix but often quite difficult due to having more wear than a fairly standard 15 or 17 jewel movement. Saying that you may be lucky and pick one up that was never used much. As an example i spent a few weeks on and off getting the most i could from an old Smiths Empire, that did actually finish at within 2 minutes per week that could be improved further now i know it is fairly precise but not quite accurate . Sekondas are good practice pieces at around a tenner, though some folk call them rough but robust.

[Chief]

Got it thank you! I'll steer clear of the lower jewel count movements until my skills are a bit better. I'm literally brand new to this

[Neverenoughwatches]

19 minutes ago, Chief said:

Got it thank you! I'll steer clear of the lower jewel count movements until my skills are a bit better. I'm literally brand new to this

Visually pocket watches suit some people. Having bigger parts to work with makes things a little easier to understand, the con to this is older timepieces that have been messed around with. Teachers recommend starting with something new and in good working order, this way if it doesn't run after you have serviced it then you are only looking for a fault that you created. That didn't suit me though because I'm quite mad with a little crazy mixed in

[Chief]

1 hour ago, Neverenoughwatches said:

Visually pocket watches suit some people. Having bigger parts to work with makes things a little easier to understand, the con to this is older timepieces that have been messed around with. Teachers recommend starting with something new and in good working order, this way if it doesn't run after you have serviced it then you are only looking for a fault that you created. That didn't suit me though because I'm quite mad with a little crazy mixed in

I was considering just building a watch from scratch, I've heard the nh35 movements have a lot of case and dial choices and apparently they run poorly when you buy them new so a good service is required. But honestly building a watch like that doesn't interest me. I love fixing things. There's nothing more satisfying to me than taking something broken and making it work again. Plus watches are cool and easier to store than a car engine! I only had one engine in the dining room and my wife complained. Hopefully the watches will go unnoticed.

[Neverenoughwatches]

1 hour ago, Chief said:

I was considering just building a watch from scratch, I've heard the nh35 movements have a lot of case and dial choices and apparently they run poorly when you buy them new so a good service is required. But honestly building a watch like that doesn't interest me. I love fixing things. There's nothing more satisfying to me than taking something broken and making it work again. Plus watches are cool and easier to store than a car engine! I only had one engine in the dining room and my wife complained. Hopefully the watches will go unnoticed.

Same goes for me, i like to pull broken things apart to fix them, it forces me to think more about how they work. If i take something new and working apart and then break it then thats just gonna pee me off.