Health of the Industry

[WatchWood]

In light of the recent news regarding shortages of lorry drivers etc I'm curious to know, preferably from those who actually work in this field, if there is a looming problem on the horizon?

Anecdotally, and in spite of the abundance of technology in everyones' pocket, it appears that demand for (mechanical) watches is still high. A recurring theme that keeps cropping up though is that not enough people are being trained to do the repair/servicing that these watches will require. Is this a lack of understanding about the industry or is there something in it? Had I been nearer the beginning of my working life I could see myself looking more seriously at a career in this field.

Your thoughts?

[clockboy]

I have found that indeed there is a shortage and in particular with lower value watches and vintage clocks. I am a very keen amateur and 75% of my work is vintage clocks.  Why, because if someone wants to know the time they just look at their smartphone. With clocks most have sentimental value and some just believe the chiming of a clock just adds something to a room.
IMO unless you are working on high end watches under the umbrella of Omega or Rolex etc earning a living wage as an independent is extremely difficult. 

[watchweasol]

I think clockboy is spot on. The clocks/watches I work on are have more of an intrinsic/sentimental value and spares are not at a premium, couple that with the fact that  repairing and servicing these old items take time and for the independent watch repairer to make his money the prices are high or the job refused because of whats involved. they have to have a fair turnover. Consider a battery change, some charge upto £20, if you get 10/15 of those through the door its quite a bit and takes a few mins depending on the watch.  There are central workshops as used by the high street cobblers where they send any thing more than a strap or a stock crystal.

[WatchWood]

Are those servicing the high-end of the market going to be immune or just very overworked?

I understand there will be a price-point where the cost of a service will outweigh the value of the watch/clock (excluding sentimental value). Surely though, once you get into the higher end, a regular service becomes important in retaining the value of said item. I have heard estimates of around 1million high end watches being manufactured every year, all of which will require attention eventually. I understand you don't just let anyone with a set of screwdrivers (like me!) loose on these things but it seem odd that a very cynical future could be; Yes sir/madam, you can only have your watch serviced by us (the original manufacturer) and you have it back in about seven years time, by which time we may have cleared the backlog!!  Is that the direction of travel?

[Plato]

41 minutes ago, WatchWood said:

I have heard estimates of around 1million high end watches being manufactured every ye

I'm pretty sure Rolex alone sell 1 million 'units' per year. Assuming they only sell watches then the number is much higher if you count other high end manufacturers.

Add to this things like eBay's "Authenticity Guarantee" and there's great opportunities for budding watchmakers.

Personally, I'm only going to enjoy the subject like a hobby as sooner or later some 'influencers' will deem our passion for mechanical watches as something archaic so the money from above will disappear. 

I'm not a fan of watchmaking/repair being a commodity. 

[WatchWood]

13 minutes ago, Plato said:

I'm not a fan of watchmaking/repair being a commodity. 

I agree but once you're in the 'Veblen' sector of any market it becomes a fact of life. The difference with watches, as opposed to say art or handbags, is that regular servicing becomes a necessity to maintain the price ? (rather than the value?). I don't think any influencer will be able to destroy the market but it could implode through lack of foresight?

Personally, I think it is the very archaic nature of the mechanical watch that makes it so appealing - it's a technology that has worked for 150+ years with little change. An [insert brand of smart-watch-of-choice] will be obsolete in two years time whereas a mechanical watch of similar price can be passed on to your kids, still working.

[nickelsilver]

I work on vintage watches. Aside from that I make components (barrel arbors, escape wheels, whatever they want). This is for new watches. When presented with a "no parts" edict from the manufacturer, in my case, it's usually because there are literally no parts available. So I make them, and charge them, and everyone is happy. Might be a staff or stem, might be a complete pallet fork. No spare parts available, even to the manufacturer, they pay the dork with the know-how and equipment to do it. 50 years down the road I hope there's a few more geeks doing this 'cause I'll be 98 and probably not hitting the lathe every day  haha.

 

End of the line for oddball stuff someone has to make it. And that's not cheap. And they aren't getting rich. And there are fewer and fewer of those folks. And laser welding and 3D printing are not the panacea.

Edited October 17, 2021 by nickelsilver

[Plato]

I had to google Veblen, my 'word of the day'! 

Watches were once a necessity, now they're just acceptable form of jewellery for men. 

Most 'high end' watches won't see the light of day so most buyers won't even notice if they keep time or not. The fact that they remain unopened/unserviced might even add to their value? 

Sheer conjecture though... 

[nickelsilver]

5 minutes ago, Plato said:

I had to google Veblen, my 'word of the day'! 

Watches were once a necessity, now they're just acceptable form of jewellery for men. 

Most 'high end' watches won't see the light of day so most buyers won't even notice if they keep time or not. The fact that they remain unopened/unserviced might even add to their value? 

Sheer conjecture though... 

One of my clients is an old _manufacture_, and they're strict on timing. But you get a piece in that was made in 1920, and has been literally abused in the last 100 years, file marks across the mainplate, rust all over, "chicken tracks" around the balance cock, and they send it with an estimate of 8 hours to put it in order....

 

Yeah a bench guy would get it close, maybe 60s in 8 positions and whip out a new stem that doesn't wiggle around and eat a few hours. Those kinda watches we usually tell ahead of time they'll be a pain, mostly on the regulation end, and in 6 years dealing with them it's a non-discussion.

At the end it's what it's worth to the client. I know my  "major manufacturer" eats a lot of cost to keep clients happy . I'm not getting rich from it and neither are they. But dammit the watches go out working properly !

[WatchWood]

9 hours ago, nickelsilver said:

...I hope there's a few more geeks doing this 'cause I'll be 98 and probably not hitting the lathe every day  haha.

End of the line for oddball stuff someone has to make it. And that's not cheap. And they aren't getting rich. And there are fewer and fewer of those folks. And laser welding and 3D printing are not the panacea.

You may not have a choice but to work as you'll be deemed a national treasure for your knowledge!

 

9 hours ago, Plato said:

Most 'high end' watches won't see the light of day so most buyers won't even notice if they keep time or not.

I don't doubt that but once you are into buying watches as an 'investment' doesn't a service history become part of the price maintainer?

 

8 hours ago, nickelsilver said:

At the end it's what it's worth to the client. I know my  "major manufacturer" eats a lot of cost to keep clients happy . I'm not getting rich from it and neither are they. But dammit the watches go out working properly !

It's good to take pride in your work irrespective of reward. Kudos to you all. Is it your experience that (new) watch owners are unaware of the costs of ownership or are they just looking to drive that cost down?

[VWatchie]

On 10/17/2021 at 7:46 PM, clockboy said:

Why, because if someone wants to know the time they just look at their smartphone.

In my opinion wrist watches (including quartz) are still the most practical way to tell the time, unless there's a clock in the room, in or near the field of your vision. Checking the time when interacting with other people, such as in a meeting, is considered very rude. In those situations smartphones as well as wrist computers (aka Apple watches and the like) are extremely inconvenient as they need to be interacted with and activated to tell the time.

Using a real wrist watch most people have the skill to tell time discreetly. That is, unless you happen to be the president of the USA.

US President Biden as he attends the "dignified" transfer of the remains of fallen service members at Dover Air Force Base.

[VWatchie]

On 10/17/2021 at 9:31 PM, WatchWood said:

Yes sir/madam, you can only have your watch serviced by us (the original manufacturer) and you have it back in about seven years time, by which time we may have cleared the backlog!!  Is that the direction of travel?

Yes, unfortunately! It is my impression that already it can take months to get your watch serviced and that the original manufacturer will make you pay through your nose. This seems to be true not just for the high-end manufacturers. Without free access to spare parts I think the future market for wrist watches look very bleak. With free access to spare parts I'm convinced the time and money needed for a service would diminish considerably with maintained or even increased quality of the work being done. With hard work an independent would be able to build a name for himself.

Some years ago the car industry tried the same trick but was forced to abandon it! The same rules apply to the watch industry but aren't considered important enough to warrant any real action from the authorities that could do something about it.

[spectre6000]

On 10/17/2021 at 2:30 PM, Plato said:

I'm not a fan of watchmaking/repair being a commodity. 

It's a double edged sword though, isn't it? If it's commoditized, that means something (tools, manufacturing practices, etc.) has improved to the point where commoditization is truly possible. It also means that there's been a renewal of appreciation for the art and science of horology, and a return to the golden age. There was a time when watchmaking was a commodity, and all that changed was the advancement of technology. Things can come back. On the one hand, you have things like bellbottom jeans. Fashion is... Dumb. I don't know. Not my bag. On the other hand, vinyl records have come back. With streaming the norm, if you want to own your music and listen to it on demand (easy for people where there's some form of telecommunications easy to hand, not so easy for others), vinyl has proven to be a superior medium in terms of quality. It has staying power due to quality and relative simplicity. I can't say for sure mechanical watches would fall into one camp or the other, but it's not impossible. If it were to happen, would it really be a bad thing? Sure, we'd get a flood of jeweless full plate pin lever movements, but there'd be a renaissance of mid-tier, quality movements (2824, Newton, and there was a third I read about recently) that would be reliable and beloved workhorses. Maybe watchmaking wouldn't be as "special", but again I'm not sure that's a bad thing.

On 10/17/2021 at 3:41 PM, Plato said:

I had to google Veblen, my 'word of the day'! 

Watches were once a necessity, now they're just acceptable form of jewellery for men. 

Most 'high end' watches won't see the light of day so most buyers won't even notice if they keep time or not. The fact that they remain unopened/unserviced might even add to their value? 

Sheer conjecture though... 

Love. It. Very familiar with the concept, and I know I learned it in B-school, but like many things from school it had faded. I love words like that.

[WatchWood]

10 hours ago, VWatchie said:

Yes, unfortunately! It is my impression that already it can take months to get your watch serviced and that the original manufacturer will make you pay through your nose. This seems to be true not just for the high-end manufacturers. Without free access to spare parts I think the future market for wrist watches look very bleak. With free access to spare parts I'm convinced the time and money needed for a service would diminish considerably with maintained or even increased quality of the work being done. With hard work an independent would be able to build a name for himself.

Some years ago the car industry tried the same trick but was forced to abandon it! The same rules apply to the watch industry but aren't considered important enough to warrant any real action from the authorities that could do something about it.

I became aware of the parts supply issue through a posting on this site. It seems a bit short-sighted for any manufacturer to assume only they will be capable of servicing the products they make! Fine if you only produce in low volumes but some of the high end watches are manufactured in very high volume. I know interest in mechanical watches is in the ascendancy right now, judging by the amount of video channels on the subject. I think it's a good thing too but I do think that there are a lot of watch enthusiasts out there who are unaware of the servicing requirements of their recent purchases? That could be a good thing for those with the requisite skills who will be able to buy up all the non-running (name-your-brand) watches that will flood internet marketplaces at a fraction of the price in about ten years time?

[VWatchie]

2 hours ago, WatchWood said:

It seems a bit short-sighted for any manufacturer to assume only they will be capable of servicing the products they make!

Of course, they don't. The only reason not to supply spare parts is to enable themselves to "rob" the owners. Even inexpensive micro brands go for in-house movements, such as for example Damasko. In and by itself that is truly exciting, but only if they would supply spare parts to independents, and they don't. "In-house" has unfortunately become a buzzword and it sells more watches and at the same time, the unsuspecting customers are being lured into only being able to service their watches at the discretion of the manufacturer. IMO, it is crooked and a scam. Whenever I get the chance I recommend people to buy watches housing movements from Sellita, for example Sinn, among others. Not because it is the best option in every situation but because they can then get their watches serviced for a reasonable price in a reasonable time.

Edited October 23, 2021 by VWatchie

[WatchWood]

12 minutes ago, VWatchie said:

...t because it is the best option in every situation but because they can then get their watches serviced for a reasonable price in a reasonable time.

Wouldn't it be nice if any brands that treat their customers as cash machines run out of customers and those brands that treat their customers with respect thrive? I've never understood brand loyalty!

[clockboy]

I had articles published in the BHI magazine on this subject when it first emerged that Swatch was going to restrict parts and sadly my predictions have come true. Cousins have had a long ongoing court battle with Swatch and and far as I can tell it is still not resolved. Many independent experienced watch makers see what was coming and retired. Hence the shortage and there are now many cowboys out there destroying watches. For example a quartz watch come to me that had a screw crown and the so called watch repairer (a well known high street shop in the UK) had just ripped the crown out stripping the thread. Horology have joined the throw away society thanks ironically the Swiss.

[oldhippy]

It all started back in the 70's when Rolex decided to go ahead and not to supply parts for their watches. As far as I know they were the first, and it didn't take long before parts started to become unavailable from suppliers. By doing this they restricted having their watches repaired. You had to take it to a stockist that sold Rolex watches, back in the 70's there were only two jewelry shops in Devon one in Sidmouth and another in Exeter.  

[WatchWood]

1 hour ago, clockboy said:

.. Cousins have had a long ongoing court battle with Swatch and and far as I can tell it is still not resolved. Many independent experienced watch makers see what was coming and retired. Hence the shortage and there are now many cowboys out there destroying watches. ......

Horology have joined the throw away society thanks ironically the Swiss.

I've been reading about that and I think it's due to be resolved before xmas unless Swatch can throw another spanner into the works. Won't this all come home to roost though in another decade when all the new high-end watch owners realise that their 'investment' has been de-valued because no-one can get the thing to work any more?

 

53 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

It all started back in the 70's when Rolex decided to go ahead and not to supply parts for their watches. As far as I know they were the first, and it didn't take long before parts started to become unavailable from suppliers. By doing this they restricted having their watches repaired. You had to take it to a stockist that sold Rolex watches, back in the 70's there were only two jewelry shops in Devon one in Sidmouth and another in Exeter.  

Rolex recently released a statement regarding the supply shortage. It's right that they don't want to compromise on quality but if they can't meet demand how are they going to cope with the additional burden of after-sales servicing if they insist on it all being done in-house? 

[VWatchie]

10 hours ago, WatchWood said:

I've never understood brand loyalty!

Likely because your are more rationale than emotional, and it is my impression that most people are not. I sometimes say that the truly crucial decisions are always made with the stomach.

[WatchWood]

1 minute ago, VWatchie said:

Likely because your are more rationale than emotional...

It wasn't always the case but experience does make you more cynical, I guess!  My neighbour is a fanbois of a certain fruity tech-firm and always has to have the latest 'shiny'. He despairs at me because my reaction to his latest purchase is never the one he wants

[VWatchie]

4 hours ago, clockboy said:

Many independent experienced watch makers see what was coming and retired. Hence the shortage and there are now many cowboys out there destroying watches.

And if you're a manufacturer of watches, you can point at that as proof that only you can do the service properly.

I believe most people who can afford to buy, for example, a Rolex, don't care much about the service cost, and I think most people believe that Rolex does a better job than others would. Telling Rolex owners that if parts were freely available, they could save a bit of money and service time during the ownership of their watch, just doesn't make any difference to them. I'm sure they think spending a bit extra is worth the peace of mind having Rolex (the "ultimate expert"!) do the job. The truth is that there are plenty of examples of service and repair jobs done sloppily by Rolex and other manufacturers.

Recently I bought an almost new (2019) Sinn 556 A for my own pleasure from a private seller on Chrono24. The guy I bought it from had in his turn bought it new directly from Sinn. When I got it in my hands, I had a good look at the movement and found dust and skin residues. So, I thought the owner might have tried to regulate it or work on it himself. When asking him about it, he replied: "Oh no, I never opened the watch. There is too much respect because of the technique" It turned out that the owner had sent it back to Sinn for a review and adjustment as it is was five seconds fast per day . Obviously, the person at Sinn doing the regulating was not in a dust-free environment and wasn't wearing finger cots. Even I, as an impassioned hobbyist, would have done a better job in this respect.

Edited October 24, 2021 by VWatchie

[oldhippy]

The main excuse from Rolex was in their opinion too many watch repairs/makers who Rolex considered not qualified were repairing their watches. Little did they know many had equal, higher or better qualifications then their own watch makers.   

[VWatchie]

19 hours ago, spectre6000 said:

mid-tier, quality movements (2824, Newton,

That Newton movement was new to me. It has the same dimensions as the 2824-2 (haven't checked hand dimensions), and reading about it, got me intrigued. The idea to create a nice franken watch, housing the Newton entered into my mind. Thought this movement would be possible to buy on Cousins but no luck and no spare parts!? Googling further, these movements don't seem to be available to the general public. That was a bit of a disappointment...

[VWatchie]

31 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

The main excuse from Rolex

Yes, there are a lot of excuses, but they all follow the same pattern and they are all hollow. As per usual, just follow the money. Ultimately, it is the end-consumers who are the victims, and along the way the independents.

For example, this is from the FAQ section at  A. Lange & Söhne:

"Can I order spare parts or individual parts?

The assembly (---)  can only be carried out by a few watchmakers. Even improper opening of the watch can cause serious damage to the movement.

Therefore, the overhaul or repair of a Lange watch may only be carried out by our service centre or by the few authorised service partners. Only they are therefore authorised to order the spare parts necessary for a repair."

Do note that as an independent, perhaps having 50 years or more of experience, you wouldn't even be able to open the watch without destroying it! What a joke!